Public Service cuts – Step 1 of how to lose an election
This past weekend, Peter Dutton entered the history books, but certainly not in the way that he wanted. Rather than leading the Liberal Party to an historic victory over a first-term Labor Government, he instead led his party to an equally historic defeat that even cost him his own seat.
Why did this happen? The pundits will offer a long list of reasons, among them committing to build nuclear reactors in a country bathed in sunlight, and supporting Nazi hecklers at an ANZAC Day dawn service.
But one reason that shouldn’t be overlooked is Dutton’s promise to cut the public service if he won the election. Different numbers and reasons were bandied about: 36,000 to 41,000 personnel to go, a need to keep growth in the public service headcount in line with inflation, and of course that favourite phrase of small government hawks; “bloated bureaucracy,” and so on.
Cuts Are Not A Winning Strategy
But Dutton and his lieutenants completely ignored three critical facts.
First, public service cuts are politically unpopular.
Second, they cost much more than they save.
Third, the idea that growth in the public service headcount should be limited by population growth has no basis whatsoever.
Fact #1 – Cuts Are Unpopular
Australians in every State and Territory want a public service that has the resources to deliver what the community needs. Whether those services are frontline or back-office misses a crucial point: both are needed, and neither can function without the other. If you won’t take our word for it, take the word of Victoria’s Public Sector Commissioner, Brigit Monagle.
“Our frontline employees cannot do their work effectively and efficiently without their dedicated back office colleagues… Without their work, services to the community would not be delivered when and where they are needed.”
Brigit Monagle, Victorian Public Sector Commissioner, May 2024
If the stunning rebuke of Dutton and his razor gang isn’t evidence enough, consider 2 one-term State Premiers whose public service cuts cost them their own jobs too: Ted Ballieu in Victoria, and Campbell Newman in Queensland.
Ballieu cut 4,200 positions after coming to office in 2010, and Victorians voted him out at the first opportunity.
Newman cut what is likely a record 14,000 positions in 2012. Queensland called bullshit, and with a 14% swing against him, consigned the Newman Government to the dustbin of history.
Fact #2 – Cuts Cost Cash
If these political costs aren’t enough, let us consider how expensive they are to the taxpayer. There can be no cut to the public service without the risk that Government will need to engage consultants and contractors to make up for the gap in capacity and capability.
The most recent audit of spending for this reason, completed by the Federal Government in 2022, showed that since the Coalition introduced a cap on the public service headcount in 2015-16, a “shadow workforce” of almost 54,000 consultants and contractors grew inside this gap. This shadow workforce came with an annual cost of $21 billion dollars, which works out to a stunning per capita cost of about $388,888 per person.
Consider this to the APS and VPS median salaries for the same period: $118,712 and $113,809 respectively. One dollar saved, almost four more dollars spent. Cutting the public service sure is expensive!
Fact #3 – Cuts Must Be Based On Reality, Not Proportions
Last of all, the idea that the size of the public service should be some ideal proportion of the population or should only grow at the same rate as the population is absurd. Any policymaker worth their salt would never pick population as the sole guiding metric for determining the size of a public service. The calculation instead should be about allocating the available resources according to public priorities.
If we take that more useful metric instead, we find that the VPS at least is systemically under-resourced. VPSC “People Matter” surveys from the past 3 years show that 40% of public servants consistently report having too much work and not enough time to do it in.
Auditor General reports over the same period on VPS performance measures consistently show that on average 3 to 4 in every 10 performance goals are going unmet.
This is not to even consider the new areas the Victorian Government has expanded into in the last 10 years: bushfire recovery, mental health services, cladding safety, wages inspection, and more.
Nor to mention the things it will yet need to do: expand care for an aging population, prepare for and respond to an increasing rate of natural disasters, and ensure public welfare in an era of accelerating technological change and global instability.
Lessons Learned?
Our Premier; Jacinta Allen, and Treasurer; Jacyln Symes, should take heed of these lessons, lest they join the ranks of Peter Dutton, Campbell Newman, and Ted Ballieu. Cutting the public service is a sure route to losing an election.
Member Profile – Zoya
What’s your name?
Zoya Gill
Where do you work and what do you do?
I work in the Department of Education in policy reform, focused on improving the way we understand, value, educate, and support early school leavers.
How long have you been in the union?
For most of the time since I joined the VPS in 2019.
Why did you join AVFM?
For most of my time as a union member I have not thought much about what a union is beyond knowing I should be in one, and that having membership is a good safety net. But in the last few years I have come to realise that my commitment to social justice and serving the public is inextricably linked with worker solidarity.
Union is something bigger than any one of us and it is inspiring and energising to be part of something collective and values-led during such a chaotic time. I believe AVFM has the ability to bring public sector workers together to create a CPSU with the courage to fight for our values and fight for us as workers.
What’s your vision for the CPSU?
I want a CPSU that puts the values and the voices of its members at the centre of what it does.
I want to define what our union is, not be told what we stand for.
I want to have ways to connect with workers in my department and across the CPSU to find out who we want to be as a union.
And I want to build our membership base so we have the power to stand up and fight.
What’s On
Get trivial with us: Thursday 8 May
Join us tonight for a night of trivia, laughs, and solidarity hosted by Tom Ballard at Fitzroy Town Hall.
180 tickets have been sold so far – we will be selling the last few tickets at the door.
It’s going to be a great night for a great cause – don’t miss it!
Where?
FITZROY TOWN HALL
201 Napier Street, Fitzroy
Thursday 8 May, 6:30pm to 9pm
Tickets: $50 or $100 solidarity
Get your last-minute tickets here!